Post peak oil transition may be difficult

[Kevin]

I am really concerned about the short term effects of a peak oil transition in our not to distant future. If you take a serious look at america's agrobusiness system of food production ,it is obvious that the nations supply of abundant food is completely dependent on an unending supply of cheap oil (fertilizer,insecticide, mechanized farming , dependence on hi-way shipping). The food supply in this country could be disrupted, depending on the legnth of the transition period. I am therefore personally preparing by ,gaining the knowledge, experience and means, to produce the majority of my family's food needs.Ie: ( organic gardening, seed saving, food preservation , hunting ,fishing, foraging,and guerilla gardening if neccesary). Kevin

[shebear]

I, too, have been concerned about the Peak Oil crisis to come. With only 2% of the population in the agriculture business, I fear the knowledge to grow food is virtually gone. The upside is that people like Patti are doing the early testing for the future and hopefully will have a viable working model when the change comes.

I fear the average person living in a city does not realize that there is very little food available to them long term. After Katrina, some may understand our dependence on trucking and usable roadways but I fear that most don't. When Russia collasped, Cuba lost most of it's access to oil and fuel. They have been forced to return to using horses and oxen to plow. Luckily they still had people who knew how to train the animals. Life for them was hard but they became the world's first Peak Oil experiment.

Like Kevin, I have been collecting info and performing my own Peak Oil experiment as well as trying to decrease my impact on this planet.

[Kevin]

I, too, have been concerned about the Peak Oil crisis to come. With only 2% of the population in the agriculture business, I fear the knowledge to grow food is virtually gone. The upside is that people like Patti are doing the early testing for the future and hopefully will have a viable working model when the change comes.

I fear the average person living in a city does not realize that there is very little food available to them long term. After Katrina, some may understand our dependence on trucking and usable roadways but I fear that most don't. When Russia collasped, Cuba lost most of it's access to oil and fuel. They have been forced to return to using horses and oxen to plow. Luckily they still had people who knew how to train the animals. Life for them was hard but they became the world's first Peak Oil experiment.

Like Kevin, I have been collecting info and performing my own Peak Oil experiment as well as trying to decrease my impact on this planet.
Hey Shebear, It is funny you mention Katrina. This hurricane is what really woke me up. My wife and I were in the french quarter when she came ashore . We were fortunate enough to make it into southern mississippi,and it still took us two weeks to get home. Trust me after a week ,food became a very valuable comodity. Also if I may elaborate on this cuban food crisis. Go to youtube and type in "seeds in the city-cuba" (journeymanpictures). Most americans don't even know this happened. Kevin

[shebear]

Well I'm from Houston and went through Carla and Alicia (as well as more than my fair share of tornados) so I know what it's like when normal ceases to be. I remember downtown Houston (I worked there) after it "rained glass" once before. Wow what a mess!

Cuba has always interested me. Being 5 years old when Kennedy came into the presidency I remember the Cuban missle crisis. (I always wondered why we did those civil defense drills--like Houston wasn't going to be a ground zero.) I've met more than a few people who remember the old Cuba and I've always wondered how they were doing down there. I'll check out youtube. I've seen a couple of videos already but I don't remember the titles. I've come to respect just how enduring a people can be when put to a test.

My grandfather still had a working farm for most of my childhood so I've had some hands-on. He really was more organic than most of his contemporaries and he worked at a hatchery for a while so I learned a little about that.

[Kevin]

Well I'm from Houston and went through Carla and Alicia (as well as more than my fair share of tornados) so I know what it's like when normal ceases to be. I remember downtown Houston (I worked there) after it "rained glass" once before. Wow what a mess!

Cuba has always interested me. Being 5 years old when Kennedy came into the presidency I remember the Cuban missle crisis. (I always wondered why we did those civil defense drills--like Houston wasn't going to be a ground zero.) I've met more than a few people who remember the old Cuba and I've always wondered how they were doing down there. I'll check out youtube. I've seen a couple of videos already but I don't remember the titles. I've come to respect just how enduring a people can be when put to a test.

My grandfather still had a working farm for most of my childhood so I've had some hands-on. He really was more organic than most of his contemporaries and he worked at a hatchery for a while so I learned a little about that. Hey shebear, I don't claim to be an expert on this. I was however born and raised in Tampa's latin quarter(Ybor City) and I am married to a wonderful women of cuban decent. most of our neighbors here still have relatives living in cuba and these recent current events are pretty well known here. Kevin

[cjwirth]

The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in 2008.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Without oil we cant' maintain the highways.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair.The power grid depends on the highways, so the power grid will collapse.

It is time to focus on Peak Oil preparation and surviving Peak Oil.
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

[shebear]

Yep and all our society focuses on power. Our libraries aren't what they used to be and I predict the web will not be able to be maintained if we have power/cost issues. They've gotten rid of analog TV and rumors have it that radio is next (except of small local stations of which there are few). All this means that a people who are used to instant news, weather and info may find themselves in the dark (in more than one way). Our government agencies that used to be huge (state extension agencies) are now manned by volunteers. I have been actively looking at used book sellers to find outdated books containing pre-WWII canning, farming, building and tool info. While I may not be able to use it, I want to have it for the anyone who has the ability. (I've found some interesting trellis and outdoor furniture designs in these books)

Now I know people give me strange looks when I start talking this way. They think they don't need this old info but I just remind them that we still don't know exactly how they built the pyramids or erected Stonehenge and we don't do big stonework now...concrete is our building material. (We have theories on how they did it but....)

I have quite a collection since I started. I've also found out that the meat processing industry has been buying up small butchering plants and closing them down. When all our local food industry is gone, how will we get it started back up rapidly. England has seen the light and they are promoting going back to local. They call it Transition Initiatives and here are some links to it.

http://transitionnetwork.org/Primer/TransitionInitiativesPrimer.pdf
http://transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/TransitionInitiative

[Kevin]

I too , have been seriously collecting old books and old tools. I really feel that the biggest obstacle most people will face in this peak oil transition ,Will be; A lack of knowledge , and a lack of experience. I can't remember how many times I have talked to people on this subject . Almost all respond by saying well I'll just start a garden or I'll hunt ,or fish. The sad fact is that if you are not currently producing at least some of your food now . You surely won't have the experience to produce it when you absolutely have to. Most people simply underestimate what it takes to accomplish this. Kevin